(The keynote speaker:Dr. Rommel Banlaoi)

(Group photo of the Preview of the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections)

On the afternoon of February 24, 2025, the 65th Session of the Lecture Series on Southeast Asian Affairs and Global Perspective was held in Conference Room 309, Nanan Building, Xiamen University. Dr. Rommel Banlaoi was invited as the keynote speaker, and the topic of the lecture was “A Preview of the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections: Political Changes and the Direction of China–Philippines Relations.” Dr. Banlaoi is currently President of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies, Chair of the Advisory Board and Visiting Professor of the China Studies Center at the College of International Relations, New Era University, and previously served as National Security Adviser of the Philippines in 2022.

During the lecture, Dr. Banlaoi analyzed the nature of Philippine electoral politics and the impact of the 2025 midterm elections on China–Philippines relations. He pointed out that the Philippines is defined as a “weak state,” constrained by political families, oligarchs, and local forces, with weak policy implementation capacity and severe social fragmentation. Elections have long been accompanied by violence, corruption, and family monopolization, which undermines democratic effectiveness. He further noted that the 2025 midterm elections will involve the selection of members of both the Senate and the House of Representatives as well as local offices, and that competition between the ruling coalition led by the Marcos camp and the opposition alliance associated with the Duterte faction has become the focal point. The election results will profoundly affect the future domestic political landscape of the Philippines and, in turn, China–Philippines relations.